How to Answer MBA Assignment of NMIMS for December 2022 on Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications?

MBA Assignment Question No.1

The income of a group of 10,000 persons was found to be normally distributed with mean Rs.750 per month and a standard deviation of Rs.50, show that of this group about 95% has income exceeding Rs.668 and only 5% had income exceeding Rs.832.(area between 750 and 668 =0.4495), area between 750 and 832 = 0.4495) .

Suggested answer of the MBA Assignment

μ = 750  

σ = 50

z          = (x – μ) / σ

            = (668 – 750) / 50

            = - 1. 64

            = 0.0505

The total area under the curve adds up to 1, or 100%

 

(1)   Therefore,   1- 0.0505                   = 0.9495  and then if it multiple i.e. 0.9494 X 100

                                                                        = 94.95%

                                                                        = 95%

(2)   1 – (0.0505 + 0.4495 + 0.4495 )   = 0.0505 and then if it multiple i.e. 0.0505 X 100

= 5%

z          = (x – μ) / σ

                        = (832– 750) / 50

                        = 1. 64

                        = 0.0505

MBA Assignment Question No.2

Why is forecasting so important in business?  Explain the application of forecasting for long term decisions.

Suggested answer of the MBA Assignment

Forecasting is valuable to businesses so that they can make informed business decisions. Financial forecasts are fundamentally informed guesses, and there are risks involved in relying on past data and methods that cannot include certain variables.

Long-term forecasting is done for a period ranging from six months to five years.  It provides a bird’s eye view of a firm’s financial needs and availability of investible surplus in the future.

There are three basic types’ methods for forecasting for long term decisions, those are qualitative techniques, time series analysis and projection, and causal models.

Qualitative forecasting can help a company make predictions their financial standing based on opinions in the company.  Performing qualitative forecasting can inform decisions like how much inventory to keep, whether a company should hire new staff members and how they can adjust their sales operations.  Qualitative forecasting is also crucial for developing projects like marketing campaigns, as it can provide information about a company’s service that can highlight which elements of the business to feature in advertisements.

Companies in almost any industry can use qualitative forecasting to make predictions about their future operations.  Few industries might use qualitative forecasting: -

Sales: Qualitative forecasting can help companies in sales makes decisions like how much of a product to produce and when they should order more inventory.

Healthcare: Healthcare employees can use qualitative forecasting to identify trends in public health and decide which healthcare operations might be in high demand in the near future.

Higher education: Colleges or universities can use qualitative forecasting to predict the number of students who might enrol for the next term or year.

Construction and manufacturing:  Qualitative forecasting can show construction and manufacturing companies the quantity of different materials they use to help determine which materials or equipment they might need for their next project.

Agriculture: Farmers can use qualitative forecasting to assess their sales and decide which crops to plant for the next season based on which products consumers purchase most often.

Pharmaceutical: Qualitative forecasting in pharmaceutical can help identify which medications are popular among consumers and which needs people are using pharmaceuticals to predict which kinds of pharmaceuticals they might benefit from developing.

Time series forecasting means to forecast or to predict the future value over a period of time.  It entails developing models based on previous data and applying them to make observations and guide future strategic decisions.  The future is forecast or estimated based on what has already happened.

There are four components of time series are: -

1. Secular trend, or Trend (T): is the smooth, regular and long-term movement exhibiting the tendency of growth or decline over a period of time.  The trend is that part which the series would have exhibited, had there been no other factors affecting the values. 
2. Seasonal variation (S): It represents a type of periodic movement, where the period is no longer than one year.  Business activities are found to have brisk and slack periods at different parts of the year.  This up-and-down movement of time series, recurring with remarkable regularity year after year, is attributable to the presence of seasonal variations. The factors which cause this type of variation are the climatic changes of the different season, such as changes in rainfall, temperature, humidity etc., and the customs and habits which people follow at different parts of the year. 
3. Cyclical fluctuation (C):  It is another type of periodic movement, where the period is more than a year.  Such movements are fairly regular and oscillatory in nature.  One complete period is called a cycle Cyclical fluctuation is found to exist in most of the business and economic time series, where it is known as business cycle. 
4. Irregular or Random movement (I): Irregular or Random movement are such variations which are caused by factors of an erratic nature.  These are completely unpredictable or caused by such unforeseen events as war, flood, earth-quake, strike and lockout, etc.  Random movements do not reveal any pattern of the repetitive tendency and may be considered as residual variation.

Trend project or least square method is classical method of business forecasting.  In this method, a large amount of reliable data is required for forecasting demand.  In addition, this method assumes that the factors, such as sales and demand, responsible and past trends would remain the same in future.

Causal forecasting is a strategy that involves the attempt to predict or forecast future events in the marketplace, based on the range of variable that are likely to influence the future movement within that market.

MBA Assignment Question No.3

What do you understand by Primary Data?  What are the various methods of collecting primary data? Also, mention what points to be kept in mind while designing the questionnaire?

Suggested answer of the MBA Assignment

Primary data means original data that has been collected specially for the purpose in mind.  It means someone collected the data from the original source first hand.  Data collected this way is called primary data.

(a)    Direct personal observation:

(b)   Indirect oral investigation:

(c)    Questionnaires sent by mail:

(d)   Schedules sent through investigations:

The above methods are generally used for collection of primary data.

(a) Direct personal observation: In direct personal observation the investigator collects the requisite information personally through observation or by measurement.  For example, in order to study the conditions of students residing in Calcutta hostels, the investigator meets the students in their hostels and collects necessary data after a personal study.  The method is time-consuming and costly, but yields very accurate results.  It is therefore, suitable for such studies when the field of enquiry is small.

 

(b) Indirect oral investigation: In indirect oral investigation data are collected through indirect sources.  Persons who are likely to have information about the problem, are interrogated and on the basis of their answers, factual data have to be compiled. Most of the commissions of enquiry or committees appointed by Government collect primary data by this method.  The accuracy of the method depends largely upon the type of persons interviewed and hence these persons have to be selected very carefully.

 

(c) Questionnaires sent by mail: In the mailed questionnaire method the most important instrument is the questionnaire.  This contains a set of questions, relevant to the subject of enquiry, answers whereto are expected to yield the requisite information.  Printed questionnaires are sent by mail to a selected list of persons, with the request to return them duly filled in. supplementary instructions regarding the definitions of terms used and methods of filling up the forms, and should also accompany the questionnaire.  The method is cheap and expeditious, and a large area can be covered within a limited cost.  Two principal disadvantage of the method are – the low degree of reliability of the collected data, and a large number of non-responses.

 

(d) Schedules sent through investigations: It is the most widely used method of collection of primary data. Here paid investigators (also called ‘enumerators’) are employed for data collection.  The investigators carry with them printed ‘schedules’ specially designed for the purpose, interview the people concerned, and fill up the schedules themselves on the sport, based on answers received from the informants.The method is very popular and yields satisfactory results.

 

Much of the accuracy of the collected data however depends on the ability and tactfulness of investigators, who are given special training as to how they should elicit the correct information through friendly discussions. This method is adopted during the decennial census of population in this country.

 

The questionnaire is a pro-forma containing a sequence of questions relevant to a statistical enquiry.  It is used for collection of primary data from individual persons through their responses to the set of questions.  The questionnaire is used in two ways. Very often, questionnaires are sent by post to individual informants who are required to write the answers against each question and return the completed pro-forma again by post.The method is very popular and is usually referred to as the ‘mailed questionnaire method’ of investigation.  Sometimes, however, the enumerators (i.e. people employed for collection of data) themselves carry the questionnaires and note down the answers while interviewing the informants. This method is employed during the census of population.

The drafting of a good questionnaire requires utmost skill, and the success of any investigation depends to a large extent on tactful drafting of the questionnaire. The following points should be keep in mind in drafting a questionnaire:

i.   The questionnaire should be as short as possible.

ii.  The individual questions should be simple, unambiguous and precise.

iii. If possible, questions should be so set as to elicit only two possible definite answers –‘Yes’ or ‘No’.

iv. Questions affecting the pride and sentiments of informants must not be asked.  Questions on personal matters like income and property should be avoided as much as possible.

v.  Question should be capable of yielding objective answers, avoiding matters of opinion.

vi. The units in which the information is to be collected should be clearly and precisely mentioned in the questionnaire.

vii. The arrangement of questions in the pro-forma should be such as to have an easy and systematic flow of answers in turn.  Questions should not skip back and forth from one topic to another.

viii. After the questionnaire has been devised, it is desirable to try it on a few individuals.The procedure, which is known as pilot survey, is useful in detecting the shortcomings of the questionnaire, so that necessary modifications may be made before it is used in the actual enquiry.

MBA Assignment Question No.4

The means of two large samples of sizes 1000 and 2000 are 67.5 and 68.0 respectively.  Test the quality of the means of the two populations each with standard deviation of 2.5. (z table value at _0.05 =-1.96).

Suggested answer of the MBA Assignment

Given that n1 = 1000, n2 = 2000, x̄ =67.5, ȳ =68

And σ₁₌ σ₂₌ σ₌2.5

(1)   Null hypothesis:

H₀:μ₁ = μ₂

i.e. two samples have drawn from the same population.

 

(2)   Alternative Hypotheses :

H₁:μ_{1 ≠} μ₂ (Two tailed test)

i.e. two samples have not drawn from the same population.

 

(3)   Test statistic under H₀ :

Z =         x̄ - ȳ                                =        67.5 – 68                                   = -5.16

                        σ√1 /n₁ + 1/n₂                        (2.5)√1/1000 + 1/2000

 

(4)   Inference:

| z | = 5.16

 

If | z | > 3, H₀ is always rejected i.e. two samples have not come from the same population.

Q5. MBA Assignment Question No.5

Write short notes on any two of the following:-

Suggested answer of the MBA Assignment

a) Mathematical properties of Arithmetic Mean

The sum of deviations of the items from their arithmetic mean is always zero, i.e. Ʃ(x –X) = 0.  The sum of squared deviations of the items from Arithmetic Mean (A.M.) is minimum, which is less than the sum of the squared deviations of the items from any other values.

b) Stratified Sampling

In stratified sampling, researchers divide subjects into subgroups call strata based on characteristics that they share (e.g. race, gender, educational attainment).  Once divided, each subgroup is randomly sample using another probability sampling method.